Pakistan in Crisis: All’s Fair Game?

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto in December threw an already beleaguered Pakistan into further turmoil and even though the major Political parties were all for going to the polls , President Pervez Musharraf chose to postpone the elections from the 8th of January to the 18th of February, citing a broken electoral system due to damage to electoral property. Most saw it as an attempt to allow the pro PPP wave to subside while the King’s Party tried to find its bearing.

With elections a few days away, and news of Asif Zardari willing to work with both President Pervez Musharraf and Nawaz Sharif, some more prominent voices shared their views on the political jigsaw puzzle, with many pieces still not in place.

“What’s the buzz, tell me what’s happening?”

Goes the famous song in the rock opera Jesus Christ Superstar and the political peccadilloes in Pakistan could be an equally intriguing soap opera, with deals being cut as rivals join hands, all to rock Humpty Dumpy Musharraf off the wall for a great fall. Meanwhile the big Joker in the pack America’s President Bush continues to believe the maxim- ignorance is bliss.

So who is playing what on the Pakistan turf? Well for once the fairest of them all Imran Khan isn’t bowling any bouncers on the political wicket. He knows the wicket is sullied with an entire team of legal stalwarts dismissed even before the first political bouncer was unleashed.

So even though a handful of days separate the elections from the voters, and most say there will be hell to pay if Musharraf postpones the elections, uncertainty hangs like the proverbial sword of Damocles as thoughts of will he, wont he-hold the elections that is, rush through each mind.

General X and Y from military intelligence say (while staying anonymous) that they are skeptical and will remain so till the elections actually happen. They also seem pretty skeptical about Army Chief Kayani pulling out the so called military personnel from civil posts and distancing himself from Musharraf as a ploy in cohorts with Gen Pervez Musharraf.

“First of all it could all be part of a grand plan. If elections happen what should we do to win public sympathy and if we want to stop them from happening what can we do and still win public sympathy. And this removing of military personnel may also be part of the plan. Which are the “critical” jobs from which they are removing the officers may we ask? Frankly the biggest indicator will be if they agree to reinstate the judiciary. They haven’t done that have they? And this thing about having every one out in 6 months. The elections are barely 4-5 days away. A six month plan means nothing at this point.”

As for the political candidates, the officers said, “All politicians in Pakistan are of the same mould as in India. For them self comes first and then the country, because none of those standing in elections have made decisions or taken measures in the past to look after their country’s interests. There is no politician today who is of a recognized stature of being considered a good and honorable leader politically and administratively in Pakistan. There is a vacuum and that vacuum continues to be and therefore the army feels that it can continue to fill that vacuum.”

Let’s see who are the players that are supposed to take Pakistan towards democracy and what do the Pakistani think tanks, think of them.

The Man Who Would be King

Mush or Bush – it could be the tightest race to the finish line as to who would win the crown for the most hated man in his own country. (Perhaps Bush would take the title because the repercussions of his decisions have spilled outside of America). But it was not so when Pervez Musharraf crossed the line and swords with Nawaz Sharif

and won in the now well remembered counter coup.

“People basically welcomed the takeover by the Army at that time,” says entrepreneur and political analyst Babar Khan. Nawaz Sharif had been the Prime Minister for just under 2 years and there was rampant corruption at that time. The civilian government had taken certain decisions that were not very popular and then there was the confrontation with the Supreme Court and a massive effort to curb the judiciary and people did not like it even then. Pakistan was also under heavy sanctions then from the West and to be fair to Nawaz Sharif the economy was in the doldrums because of trade barriers, and there was no aid.

So when Musharraf came and announced his agenda and the emphasis on that agenda was good governance, all the wrongs to be corrected, and a very fair system of governance for the people, everyone welcomed it, and then a few years down the road Musharraf started making compromises to stay in power and the façade that he had created of a civilian rule started unraveling.

Musharraf tried to get reputable people to form the PML (Q) and when they refused he took some very disreputable ones who had broken away from PPP and some from Nawaz Sharif’s party that had the same kind of poor reputation and inducted them into the party. Things were going downhill for Musharraf but 9/11 changed all that and with that famous call from General Colin Powell in the middle of the night, Pervez Musharraf went from being the Head of State of a Pariah state to an ally on the war on terror and so from that time onwards he could do nothing wrong.

The guy can speak, he is glib, but finally the chicken has come to roost because he has been doing things he was asked to do by the United States and other western powers and he has alienated the entire nation against him. The Pakistanis see the war on terror as a foreign war that they are waging on their own people. They believe that Musharraf has started a civil war in the country at the behest of foreign powers and doesn’t have much backing.

There was a seminar in Islamabad and there were some interesting figures that the gentleman who runs the Gallup poll in Pakistan pointed out- except for Karachi where you have ethnic backing for the General, Islamabad where most people are working for the government and Peshawar, he has no support anywhere else. The rest of the country wants to get rid of him.”

“America needs Musharraf more than Musharraf needs America because of the geo-political importance”, says journalist Amina Jilani. “ I don’t think the Americans are interested in knowing about local and regional politics of Pakistan. They want a Pakistan they can control and use and Musharraf is giving that to them.”

Mujib-u-Rehman Shami, the well known Pakistani journalist and political analyst and owner of “ Pakistan” newspaper says that each day some event occurs that is indicative of the fact that now that Musharraf is in civilian clothes, the army is slowly distancing itself away from him and from civil life. Whether Musharraf will stay on for another five years as a civilian President will only be decided after the 18th Feb elections and where his party stands. Until then it is difficult to predict his fate. It all depends on how people think and how they participate.

Farukh Goindi, one of the earliest inductees in the Pakistan People’s party, a journalist and a TV personality says that Musharraf is not a bad person but people don’t see that. “There is such an overwhelming dislike for him that if you were to ask someone why is this cup of tea tasting so bad-they will say as long as Musharraf is at the helm, the tea is not likely to taste good. Poor guy started with good intentions and is now in quite a soup. So whatever is happening is Pakistan-from a tasteless cup of tea to perhaps the sun rising in the west-its all being blamed on Musharraf. My own analysis about him is he may leave the country after the elections because whatever kind of situation there will be after the elections he won’t be able to handle it. He also won’t have the external support of the military. It seems they are giving in half heartedly and waiting to see what happens in the elections. America will also watch and see how their self interest is to be served after the outcome of the election. The US wants to enter the country-their geo strategic agenda hasn’t changed. They wanted to create a base, and that hasn’t changed since the cold war. But this is the first time I’m seeing the Pakistanis really concerned about the entry of the US into the country, and that it will be the next country after Iraq for the US to mess around with.

If Musharraf survives the elections he will leave the country. He gave a statement to the effect and there are rumors that he has bought a house in Turkey. His leaving the country however isn’t going to solve the problems of the country.”

Matchmaker Matchmaker Make Me a Match

The 40 day mourning period for the late Benazir Bhutto is over and Asif Ali Zardari is leading the PPP in an intense campaign as the elections approach. According to reports it’s likely that there is going to be a Punjabi-Sindhi match, as Nawaz Sharif join hands with Asif Ali Zardari to form a coalition government. PPP has chosen Maqdoom Amin Fahim as a candidate for Prime Minister if PPP was to make a clean sweep, but now rumbles are being heard that Asif Zardari may be in the reckoning too, something he has brushed aside in recent interviews, but one never knows how the cookie will eventually crumble.

Nawaz Sharif – The Punjab da Puttar (son of Punjab)

Considered not so ‘Sharif’ when he was twice Premier, people say Nawaz Sharif is a changed man. But AC Cowasjee, the grand old man of Pakistani journalism, said with his usual biting candor, “ Yes he has changed. He certainly has grown a lot of hair, speaks better. I’d say his English has improved. Whether he “ thinks” better or not is the question. He was the man who messed around with the Supreme Court and organized a raid and now he says he will fight for an independent judiciary-what can you say? They are all jokers.”

His colleague journalist Amina Jilani says, “Well he definitely has learnt a bit about politics, I must say but how genuine it is God only knows. He certainly has behaved very well but it could all be a little façade and he could have just learnt the art of politicking.”

Babar Khan says that he has seen the change in Nawaz Sharif. “He seems to have calmed down, become more objective and is able to express himself much better than he used to. Maybe he has had time to reflect. Nawaz Sharif however is not the panacea to all our ills. He has governed before and we have seen the limitations of his rule as well. I don’t think he has changed so much that he has become a totally different man. Nawaz Sharif has weaknesses but unfortunately there are not many players on the political field that are viable in terms of forming a government.

Babar Khan also points out to an interesting Gallup poll that showed Nawaz Sharif was going to sweep the elections prior to Benazir Bhutto’s assassination. After she died, the polls have been done three times and have been inconclusive.

Hafizullah Khan Niazi, cricketer Imran Khan’s brother in law and a political analyst and observer says. “ I don’t think the sympathy wave for Benazir has been able to disturb the pro-Nawaz Sharif pattern.” Niazi says that it is his belief people who are against Musharraf and standing in elections are more likely to side with Nawaz Sharif.

Shami warns against being quick to dismiss Nawaz Sharif as a man with weaknesses. “He is a responsible politician today. He is also a man of his words and stands by his word. I feel he has a great sense of commitment today and these qualities have catapulted him to the top spot before after he started from scratch. He gave the party a new soul and these qualities are pretty obvious to anyone who has any understanding of Pakistan politics.

He did have an uncompromising streak in his personality and Benazir and he didn’t get along but the experiences he has had from 1985 to 1990-from being at the top to being toppled and then sent to exile, it is only natural that he would have changed and evolved in a different way and become more grounded after having faced failures and setbacks. He went from being the head of state to an ordinary jailed prisoner and given life imprisonment –I think that brings stillness, a new depth in your persona. He talks in a tired tone these days and the fire seems to have gone out from the firebrand he earlier was.

Today Nawaz Sharif wants to work with the PPP, something you could not have imagined in the early years. He went to offer condolences to Benazir’s husband. The thing to watch however is whether this flexibility stays. Earlier no one could dare cross swords with him or give him advice. It was either his way or the highway. Nawaz Sharif does have the capability and the support to regain the leadership position in Pakistan. There are many who look up to him and even the regions like NWFP and Baluchistan, he has cordial relations with many and many doors are open to him.”

Farukh Goindi agrees. “Nawaz Sharif began as the blue eyed boy of the military establishment, only to realize that he couldn’t get away with whatever it was he wanted. The exile I think has been a great learning experience for him because Pakistani power centers are really not the Parliament.

It seems like he is anti-establishment but to think he can be another Zulfikar Ali Bhutto would be naïve idealism. It is true that ever since he returned to Pakistan he is singing a different tune. Before coming here he had announced he was not going to allow any outsider into the party and now there are reports to the contrary. Of course to court back turncoats into the Party is considered an achievement-that was how politics in the old days worked and Nawaz Sharif is an expert in power politics. However if he starts compromising then it may become a continuous process and he may have to share power. But then that coalition can never bring major changes in Pakistan, like in the early 70s when Zulfikar Ali Bhutto came into power. Nawaz Sharif is definitely listening to advice for a change and there is an exchange of ideas within the party and it seems he is saying things based on collective decisions and being discreet. It was Nawaz Sharif who initiated talks of a coalition because it is obvious to him that no one party can deal with all the issues facing Pakistan.”

Asif Ali Zardari – Son of the Sindh

While not seeming to be the man who wants the throne, Asif Ali Zardari the Co-Chairman of the PPP, is the powerbroker behind the scene. If there has been a drastic change of opinion, it seems to have been about Zardari.

The man who was called the polo playing playboy and Mr. Ten percent has come out from behind his late wife’s shadow and surprised everyone. Since her death, Asif Ali Zardari has come across as extremely bright, politically savvy, and composed and conducted himself with great dignity. Indeed he has not put a wrong foot forward. According to Husain Haqqani(see exclusive interview)-Zardari is extremely well read and knowledgeable and always willing to learn-a rare quality in a man of that stature.

M.R. Shami says, ‘ Asif Zardari’s personality is in front of us. He had several allegations against him and was considered a burden for Benazir Bhutto but after his jail term and how he has recently handled himself, a new personality has emerged, especially after Benazir Bhutto’s martyrdom. All eyes will be on him to see if he can keep the party together and if he can convince others to join him. Today his role is that of Sonia Gandhi in India-the power behind the scenes and frankly I think the more he works behind the scenes the more his strength will increase.

One thing of course is sure that Asif Zardari will not have the kind of hold in PPP that Mohatarma Benazir had and so he won’t be able to make solo decisions like she could. Benazir Bhutto had that ability to inspire and people were compelled to follow her. When she negotiated with Musharraf and arrived at a compromise, the whole world didn’t approve, PPP objected but Benazir came, and mobilized the people and showed that she is a born leader, that she would prevail in spite of the roadblocks thrown at her and the Party followed her forgetting everything except that she was there and they were behind her.

Asif Zardari can never have that unanimous support and so he needs to take a back seat. He has shown a desire to cooperate with others and so even if the PPP wins he will still like the cooperation of other parties to overcome national issues. I feel that he will be able to cooperate with others and for that very reason be able to move things forward.’

Farukh Goindi agrees. “Zardari definitely seems to have a hold on the party but he has his work cut out for him. Mohatarma (Benazir) was a very big leader but no matter what we say it was a big setback for her to be a woman. It is still a man’s world in this part of the region. I also feel that people who go abroad in their early years to study there, come back with a totally unrealistic view of how to rule Pakistan. People were saying Mohatarma had changed, she seemed more like a Pakistani this time than the earlier times. It is true –when she came here in the 1980s, she really seemed likes a western tourist-like Fatima Bhutto is now. In the South Asian subcontinent it has been a culture to be impressed by outsiders or foreign returned leaders. They evoke a sense of awe. Mohatarma indeed looked more of a Pakistani on 18th October 2007 then she ever did. She was much more comfortable in her own skin.

Zardari has his own detractors but his knowledge of the local culture and local provinces is very deep and people like him will always be much more at home when it comes to running local affairs and local parties.”

Farukh Goindi says he has noticed that Asif Ali Zardari has created a secretariat in Lahore and what is very interesting is that he is inviting many people who are leftists. “Zardari is also a futurist. In politics it really doesn’t matter if you don’t become a world leader or an internationally renowned name because at the end of the day you are revered only when you are the leader of your own people. That leadership role is the most important one really and Zardari sahib has a much better sense of sorting the problems of Pakistan. This is my understanding. Those leaders who have a strong understanding of their sub continent and their neighbors and I’m especially talking about the South Asian subcontinent, their outcome and understanding is far superior to leaders educated in the western world and that is where Zardari Sahib will do well.”

Babar Khan says he doesn’t think that people in general will forget the charges against Zardari. They may not have been proved in Pakisan but some have been proved in Swiss and Spanish courts, and of course Musharraf put the charges aside as part of his deal with Benazir Bhutto. “I don’t think Asif Zardari is accepted by anybody but PPP, and that is because they had no choice. The PPP leadership has revolved around the word “ Bhutto”-that word is the magic glue that holds the party together and by naming his son as Chairman Asif Zardari attached himself to the party even more closely. I personally think that is the worst thing that has happened to the party. Look at people like Aitzaz Ahsan – don’t you think he deserves to be out there when party decisions were to be made and no body even talked about him.

Yes Zardari was in jail and came through and Pakistan is a very macho and masculine kind of society and people will admire that but I don’t think those are the people who will be participating in the elections and going to vote on that day. His admirers are the big landlords like him and I don’t think the average man will admire someone who has been involved in so much corruption. Asif I think is going to be the cause of the demise of the PPP because of his own bad image and unpopularity.’

Maqdoom Amin Fahim – Familiar Stranger

Outside of Pakistan the reaction to Amin Fahim’s nomination was “Fahim who?” But those who know him say he is a very respected and gracious man who kept the PPP together in the 8 years that Benazir Bhutto was in exile.

Mujib-U. Rehman Shami says indeed Benazir was a very charismatic personality and such charisma is not seen every day. It is obvious that neither Asif Zardari nor Maqdoom Amin Fahim have that charisma and such leaders are neither born every day nor replaced quickly with another one with an equal amount of charisma. But one cannot take away from the fact that Amin Fahim has led the Party for so many years in the absence of Benazir and kept it together and done a very competent job. “He did not betray her trust. He refused to cut any deals with Musharraf either and stuck it out with Benazir Bhutto. He has his own status as the son of an eminent family, and if PPP wins and he does become the Prime Minister I feel quite strongly that he has the capability to be the bridge that unites various forces and factions and moves things forward. That is the kind of man he is-a uniting force.”

“It is my understanding”, says Farukh Goindi, “from very reliable sources that Maqdoom Amin Fahim was going to leave the party, but after the bomb blast on the 18th, he returned to the fray because of his affection for Benazir and vowed to stay by her side. He doesn’t have Mohtarma’s charisma but he is much respected and can step up to the job.”

Imran Khan – The Dark Horse Who Plays Fair

The legendary cricketer whose philanthropy and incorruptible integrity have made him an icon of hope in the eyes of the younger generation, and earned the respect of the older, has chosen to boycott what he calls the “ fraud” elections(see exclusive interview). The fair skinned Pathan has ironically become the dark horse on the Political scene and chosen to take slow measured strides off the field, refusing to compromise on what he considers to be valid reasons for the boycott. His friends and well wishers obviously have tremendous respect for him but are candid enough to share thoughts about him.

“ I have known Imran for quite some time,’ says Babar Khan. ‘ I think like all of us Imran has been evolving. He has been working towards making the effort and preparing himself for the work he has undertaken in the right and honorable way. He has total focus and commitment just as he did when he played cricket. He is a voracious reader, always exploring ideas, always engaging people to come up with diverse thoughts and opinions. He has done some amazing humanitarian work with the same quiet passion and integrity. His hospital is a standard bearer in a country where we are quick to make compromises and the same rules apply to everyone-even family. Seventy percent patients are the poor and their treatment is free. He is opening another hospital in Karachi and a college where again 70 percent admissions will be of underprivileged students and the education will be free. Imran has done a lot of work in the interiors of Sindh that many people don’t even know about-gone to underprivileged areas, supplied people with the necessities of life and is also engaged in investing in things that has had a lasting effect-from schools to putting up water pumps in areas with water shortage.

It is obvious that he is an idealist and how will an idealist handle politics in a country where by the time a politician reaches the helm of affairs he has already sold his soul to the devil. A man like Imran is not likely to compromise. He has an iron will and is perhaps one of the most determined and optimistic men I know.

The younger generation adores him, and so many have told me how disappointed they are that he has boycotted the elections. But Imran says when his party stands for justice how can he in all honesty stand for elections unless the judges are reinstated.”

Farukh Goindi says that while Imran talks about revolt his party is not a revolutionary party. “ In fact they don’t have a party. They are inviting anarchy through that statement. They say reinstate the judiciary. Just with the return of a handful of judges Pakistan is unlikely to emerge in a blaze of judicial glory. Until there is socio-economic justice, idealism has no buyers. Imran is an urban, upper middle class guy with world exposure. He doesn’t know what his constituency is. He says free the judiciary and things will be fine. When he realizes that is not where the problems of Pakistan lie then he will say Oh I wasted my time. It’s not important to be vocal in politics. Its men of action who have made the real impact. I am very fond of him but I call him a spoilt baby who now says-okay I want to play politics.

Shami says he is among Imran’s admirers. “ He is a man of integrity, very straight forward, intelligent with an equally big heart, but his party is not at that place where it can call the shots and he still needs more experience. Had he participated who knows the Party may have found some new allies but since he chose not to stand obviously there isn’t much about him that is a point of discussion right now. I think the next elections will be more important from his point of view. But right now both the elections and he are irrelevant to each other.

The politics of idealists is not the politics of the subcontinent. Idealism can win you admiration but not votes. Pakistani politics today is a different ball game. Our sincere good wishes are always with him, but if good wishes could win elections then things would be quite different in the world.”

Feb 18th – Just another Manic Monday?

While weeks have turned into a handful of days, the question is still if the elections will be held, how widely rigged will they be, what will America do in different scenarios, and what will the players do?

Asif Zardari’s comments that recent polls show PPP will make a clean sweep isn’t being digested well by others. Nawaz Sharif is busy Musharraf bashing in his home state of Punjab, Aitzaz Ahsan is in jail, Imran is campaigning against the elections, and Amin Fahim..is nowhere to be seen in the media at least.

Every one had their own take on it.

The question is still at the back of everyone’s head if the elections will be held says Babar Khan, and what raised a lot of eyebrows were Musharraf’s mad dash to Europe to what is seeming as a plea for support to let him continue as before. “His speeches mainly stated that the West should not be impatient and Pakistan and countries like Pakistan should be allowed their own methods and ways. Also that the west should not insist on their definition of democracy to be imposed in countries where democracy has not evolved to their level.

So this is a strange phenomenon. On one hand he is claiming free and fair elections and on the other hand he is telling these European powers that what you are asking is not suitable for Pakistan. The people of Pakistan believe in democracy and here comes Musharraf and says people of Pakistan are not ready for democracy. That itself puts a big question against his intent.

What if the agencies tell him the elections are not going to be in his favor? Will he withhold them? And if he allows the elections and a party that doesn’t see eye to eye with him wins, what does he do then?

We had a situation in the 70s and when the armed forces arranged for the elections, to their surprise they had to hand over reins to a civilian government and that broke up Pakistan. Another instance was in Nigeria when the military regime held elections then voided them when the results were not to their liking, civil war erupted and 200,000 people died.”

But is the west going to allow Musharraf to continue?

“The current American administration (not the democrats) certainly seem to lean that way and it seems that UK too seems to be leaning in that direction”, says Babar. “Another joker in the deck is how the Army is going to react to all this. The new Chief has started asserting his new position and has started pulling military personnel out of civil jobs and asked them not to interact with politicians. He plans to pull every military officer out of civil jobs in 6 months. And one has to wait and see how he would allow Musharraf’s agenda to be pushed forward. There are a lot of question marks and the only thing I can say with great confidence is that not one single person who I have talked to is going to vote for Musharraf.” In fact Babar Khan says that he was talking to a PML(Q) candidate who told him that they were really fighting the next elections and making all this tremendous effort now to just survive and have some kind of a presence. They have been resorting to desperate measures like giving out groceries and other amenities to poor villagers to win their support.

Hafizullah Niazi, says the confusion abounds and Imran was very clear about siding with the judiciary. Niazi believes that people will appreciate his stand in the coming days. America’s support of Musharraf, and with American involvement things are getting messier. “ America comes up with such shallow arguments and their perception of the world is so naïve. When Bush was contesting elections, he did not know basic details about India and Pakistan and other countries of the world. It is amusing to see that an average American can’t tell the difference between Australia and Austria.

The whole nation is glued to TV and quotes television as the real authority. Their conversation always start with-but it says on TV that…They don’t do their own research, they don’t have their own opinion and the electronic media does its own manipulation in any case. So they never ask well thought out or intricate questions. America itself is floundering in so any ways. America must remember that democracy has only one color and kind that Abraham Lincoln aptly described-by the people and for the people.”

General X and Y say it looks very attractive to say leave us alone on paper but the fact remains that without America Pakistan cannot remain what it is. Pakistan also needs America otherwise there will be a free for all and that will be the worst for neighboring states. India for example will end up with a flood of refugees.

“Already north of the Indus river adjacent to Afghanistan- that area is not under Pakistan’s control. The area of Baluchistan has fierce tribals who don’t tolerate anyone interfering with them. The Sindhis are pretty unhappy as well with the central government. Its only Punjab that one can call Pakistan as parts of NWFP too are volatile. Tomorrow if their army gets divided on the same lines it will be mayhem. Already there is a belief that there are ties between the madrasas and part of the army.

So in the interest of the South Asian continent America should continue to have some say in the affair but Pakistan needs to grow some acumen themselves to control the turmoil in their own country.”

About the elections Niazi still remains bullish and says Indian journalist Kuldip Nayar pointed out something very significant. ‘ He essentially said that the Pakistani nation has never supported dictators. They have always come forward in protest and whenever there have been elections they have come forward and participated and chosen the candidate who deserved to win”.

M.R.Shami says the candidates have been busy campaigning and its business as usual and the attitude is that unless a huge catastrophe happens, the elections will be held on the 18th. Yes election commission has ignored opposition candidates but the big parties are participating and that means they believe they can still participate and win the elections. “There was a huge sympathy wave for PPP with Benazir Bhutto’s assassination, but like all waves of joy and sorrow this one too has subsided into normalcy. However there is still a lot of love and support for the PPP. Another positive thing that has happened is that certain members of the PPP who had alienated themselves, seem to be returning to the fold and that has given a new shot in the arm to the party. And on the 18th you will see the proof of this support.”

Farukh Goindi says the western media does not show the real face of Pakistan and has barely touched its burning issues. “ Look at Baluchistan for instance and the militants there. They are not fundamentalists but they are nationalists and politics there has taken a violent turn since the past 8-9 years. Look at the NWFP-Sindh-they are not happy with the federation and criminalization has come into society that was obvious in the December assassination. Incompetence and corruption have been submerged under the greater issue of the rise of criminal elements. I have been saying this for sometime that at this rate Pakistan may become like another Columbia or Panama.

On one side you see the supposed progress-I call it the artificial middle class with those big department stores and on the other side you see this huge gap between the haves and the have nots. There are a lot of contradictions in the Pakistani society and unless the national government does some serious socio-political economic reforms things will go from bad to worse. Poverty and Islamic fundamentalism are inter-related and I don’t see any of the leaders having the generosity of heart to create a national government with everyone’s cooperation.

Goindi however has hope from the people of Pakistan. “ Bibi was glorified by the western media. A tall fair beautiful Oxford educated woman becomes the Prime Minister of an Islamic nation for the first time and it was a big deal but the credit goes to the people of Pakistan. It was not a product of the gender movement but the sheer support of a few thousand PPP workers who made this possible. I know-I was one of them. Mohtarma was not a world leader like her father. She was a leader of Pakistan and when Bhutto was hanged it was his party people who were determined to make Mohtarma the rightful heir to his legacy. So the people of Pakistan do come forward when they have to.”

Farukh Goindi says the elections will be held as scheduled. “ Now whether they will be fair-the way the elections have been held in the past, whatever is our past history they will be no different.” He does not want outside interference either and says Pakistan will do very well if left to its own devices. ‘ I don’t have a single example where I can say that an outsider has come and changed the destiny of another country. People change their own destiny and there are so many cases be it Malaysia, or Turkey. If we continue to focus only on terrorism then the more pressing issues will continue to be suppressed and ignored and violence will escalate. Unless the common man is included in every aspect of policy making, the country will remain in chaos. There is a crisis behind the crisis and a divisive army may create bigger troubles..”

AC Cowasjee doesn’t mince words and calls all the political candidates bastards and America the self appointed conscience keeper of the world. He thinks the elections will be held but is doubtful of them being fair.

Amina Jilani is equally exasperated. ‘ Benazir’s death was a tragedy and I feel terrible about it, but Benazir was not the answer to Pakistan’s problems-she just wasn’t. Charisma is not an answer to problems. Charisma is charisma. In fact I think it probably might have complicated matters. She and Musharraf were also an unrealistic mixture-probably not as lethal as the possible Asif Zardari-Nawaz Sharif mixture, but a mixture that was doomed to failure nevertheless.

Nawaz Sharif has been there since 1985, Zardari since 1988, Amin Fahim too and he is not a capable man. He was seen as Benazir’s carpet. Aitzaz Ahsan is also not the answer. He is a very clever man and a better politician than he is a lawyer but he doesn’t have a constituency and he can lead his lawyers but that s all there is. There is no emerging leader. There is just a terrific blank-that is why there is still Musharraf.”

General X and Y say that America, called the greatest democracy has a peculiar way of interpreting democracy when it comes to other countries. “America has strangely, most often supported non democratic nations. As far as elections are concerned in our part of the world, they can never ever be called “ free and fair”. It’s a good cocktail conversation for the intellectual elite who can swirl the word “free and fair’ on their tongues along with their wine and for the journalists when they report events but fairness and freeness is also within certain confines and restraints and to expect fair and free elections right now is a great fictional tale to tell.” They also feel military rule will continue in some form or the other, and Musharraf too will carry on as he just can’t afford to have elections that are normal.

I’m not pessimistic at all says Babar Khan. ‘ This is something Pakistan had to go through in order to become a more mature democratic nation. We have had this history of military intervention and now Pakistan’s people are showing a desire for democracy. 60 judges refused to take oath under Musharraf and it shows a desire to stand up and ask for what is right and that is a step forward.”

Hafizullah Khan Niazi too says he sees the light at the end of tunnel. “ We see opportunity because we are convinced we have already hit rock bottom and can’t go down any further. I think there is a high probability Musharraf will be ousted. Musharraf needs to step down and stay away from Pakistan politics and after the turmoil I think we will bounce back. I was in Islamabad recently and the top think tanks were gathered there. I was really happy to see that people were very optimistic.

As I said before, I have noticed one thing very clearly-whenever elections have happened the Party that deserved to win has won and for that we must credit the people of Pakistan. Even this time, if given a fair chance, I’m very confident they will bring the right people back to power. If you come to Pakistan you will see things are not as gloomy as are being projected. People are positive, the country has modern facilities, the restaurants are full of people sharing conversations and given the chance Pakistan has always done well. “

Latest update as we go to Press on 14th February from Babar Khan in Lahore

“Chief secretary of the Punjab Government called a meeting of the civil administration day before yesterday and read to them the writ from “above”. “They were not to interfere with the voting on the 18th”. Its being taken by the opposition as a comment made for the sake of propagating the Government’s neutrality…neutrality that nobody here is willing to believe in. At this late stage, however -today’s the thirteenth of February and the elections are supposed to be held on the eighteenth- nobody expects the elections to be postponed any further. The general feeling is that they are going to be held on the date given this time.

Whether the rigging is massive as Imran and people of his ilk claim it to be…I tend to agree with them. Already a huge level of pre-poll rigging has taken place. Firstly, the Government has effectively neutralized the judiciary…so if anybody decides to challenge a particular result, they don’t have any reason to expect a just verdict. In fact when Nawaz Sharif and Shahbaz Sharif were disqualified, they even refused to challenge the decision in court because of a lack of faith in the current system. Secondly, the current dispensation of local bodies is heavily weighed in favor of the present rulers; that will ensure co-operation from a whole political class whose survival is dependent on Pervez Musharraf carrying the day in some shape or form. These people have the local muscle to bring out their voters and intimidate the opposition. There were complaints made against the District and Town Nazims in front of the election Commission and -believe it or not- the Election Commissioner, while accepting the veracity of the charges in some cases, expressed his helplessness to take any corrective measures because he said, “The elections are too near”. Thirdly, whoever is responsible for bombing political rallies, is instilling a fear among masses not to congregate anywhere for political reasons. That fear on the election day will result in a lower turn out. All the political commentators are agreed that a lower turn out will favor the king’s party.”